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DRAGONLADY-1279514

Articles Posted: 4  Links Seeded: 41
Member Since: 8/2009  Last Seen: 6/13/2011

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Jobs Report Is Strongest Since the Start of the Recession

Seeded on Sat Dec 5, 2009 3:20 AM EST
Read ArticleArticle Source: The New York Times
business, obama, economy, jobs, job
Seeded by DragonLady-1279514
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The unexpected improvement comes as a relief to the Obama administration, which plans to unveil new proposals next week to ease the plight of the jobless following its labor forum in Washington on Thursday.

In the best report since the recession began two years ago, only 11,000 jobs disappeared last month, the government said on Friday, and the unemployment rate actually dipped, to 10 percent, from 10.2 percent the previous month.

"There are going to be some months where the reports are going to be a little better, some months where the reports are worse, but the trend line right now is good," President Obama said in a visit to Allentown, Pa., offering reassurance to a city besieged by unemployment and a country still suffering from the highest unemployment rate in 26 years.

Many forecasters suggest that the turning point — from jobs being cut to jobs being added — will come by March, assuming the economy continues to grow, as it finally started to do in the third quarter. If they are right, the beginning of a work force recovery would come more quickly than after the last two recessions, in the early 1990s and 2001, despite the much greater severity of this downturn.

Stock markets rose sharply early Friday after the employment report was released and ended the day slightly higher, while the dollar had its biggest one-day rally since January.

Although 15.4 million people are struggling to find work, the November report revealed signs of improvement across the country. More than 50,000 temporary workers were hired, the first surge in months and often a precursor to companies hiring permanent workers. Employees worked more hours, even in manufacturing.

And, reflecting the increased hours, the average weekly wage for most of the nation's workers rose by nearly two-thirds of a percentage point in a single month, to $622.

"Many companies have reached the point that they can't extract more work from their existing employees," said Nigel Gault, chief United States economist for IHS Global Insight. "That means they have to add hours for existing workers or add people. Just how many depends on how quickly the economy grows."

It also depends on business executives feeling confident enough about the economy to invest and expand their operations. That may take months of steady economic growth even after they have stopped peeling back their work forces.

In the end, the unanticipated improvement in November may turn out to be partly a correction of too much bad news in October — particularly the unemployment rate, which shot up four-tenths of a percentage point that month and has retreated somewhat.

But economists in the Obama administration were having none of that. They see the November improvement as payback from the $787 billion stimulus package. In briefings with reporters, they said the federal spending saved or created 1.6 million jobs. Without that lift, the total job loss over the 23 months of recession would have been 8.8 million instead of 7.2 million.

"I think you have to give our interventions a lot of credit," said Jared Bernstein, chief economist for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. And then, insisting that Thursday's job conference in Washington was a step along the way to more job creation activity, he said: "By no stretch of the imagination does this report mean less pressure on us for job creation."

Republican economists were hardly as sanguine. "Even if you accept their analysis that we are creating jobs this year, when you remove the stimulus you are going to destroy jobs," said Kevin A. Hassett, director of Economic Policy Studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute and chief economist for John McCain in his failed presidential campaign. Mr. Hassett's preferred tonic, like that of many Republicans, is tax cuts for job creation, not public spending.

Adding to the positive signs, a broad measure of unemployment — one that includes those forced to work only part time and those too discouraged to look for work — fell to 17.2 percent, from 17.5 percent in October, the first decline in several months. In addition, job losses in September and October turned out to be far less than previously reported: 250,000 instead of 409,000.

"All this good news is miles above the underlying trend rate of improvement, so we expect a correction in the next month or two," Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics, said in a message to the firm's clients.

Even without a correction, once the economy turns and hiring resumes, nearly 18 million people are likely to be vying for jobs, as if they were all trying at once to jam themselves through a door too narrow to accommodate more than a few. In a strong economy, the work force seldom grows by more than 300,000 workers a

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  • Public Discussion (9)
DragonLady-1279514

only 11,000 jobs disappeared last month, the government said on Friday

You know how bad this sounds when government are trying to use "only 11,000 job lost" as a good news for our economy.

  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Sat Dec 5, 2009 3:22 AM EST
AdipicAcid

The rate of job loss has to decline prior to it going positive.

The real problem here is the utter innumeracy of our society. We're morons who are easily led by our emotions, not facts.

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Sat Dec 5, 2009 7:43 AM EST
Peter Merel

The rate of job loss has to decline prior to it going positive.

10%? Right on schedule. But real US unemployment is 22%.

And next year is a mortgage default tsunami. Next year for the first time US gross debt wlll exceed US GDP.

But that's all abstract. Look at the bottom line. Christmas spending is down and mostly in cash. Anyone who says happy days are here again is singing a song ...

  • 3 votes
#1.2 - Sat Dec 5, 2009 11:24 AM EST
AdipicAcid

Bu tI'm not is saying that Peter. What I'm saying is that things are improving, slightly, right now. No more, no less. Switch to decaf.

  • 1 vote
#1.3 - Sun Dec 6, 2009 7:46 AM EST
Peter Merel

@Adipic,

I drink tea. Switching to white.

Onya mate!

  • 1 vote
#1.4 - Sun Dec 6, 2009 3:59 PM EST
Reply
JoulesBeef

Mr. Hassett's preferred tonic, like that of many Republicans, is tax cuts for job creation, not public spending.

bush gave the rich 2 trillion in tax cuts, lowered capital gains to it's lowest since the great depression and /blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/">">he had the lowest job creation of any president.
and tax cuts without cutting spending lead to massive deficits.
as you can see in those 4 years in a minor recession..with 2 wars(which generally generate jobs)
bush created 100k jobs.. now compare that to jimmy carter who created 10.3 million.

with the bush tax cuts and the gops hypothesis of job creations we should have too many jobs right now.. we should be begging mexico to send more people.

  • 2 votes
Reply#2 - Sat Dec 5, 2009 4:22 AM EST
brianfromPA

Yes... doesn't anybody know what time of year it is? Seasonal jobs... and those that are too proud to take unemployment took a seasonal job that mostly pays nothing close to the job they lost. I would love to know what the underemployment rate is.... but I doubt we'll find out.

  • 1 vote
Reply#3 - Sat Dec 5, 2009 11:52 PM EST
JP-892794

Thyy are TEMP jobs idiots! Xmas TEMP jobs.

Read the real data.

Also Thousand are OFF un-employment because they have MAXED out their time!!!

  • 1 vote
Reply#4 - Sun Dec 6, 2009 3:52 PM EST
kcdad

I was really impressed with the 33 hour average work week. Considering how many are working 40 hour full time jobs and how many of them are working 60 hour weeks... how many people are working part time jobs? I know at my job, at least 70% of employees are part time. My employer is a college.

  • 2 votes
Reply#5 - Sun Dec 6, 2009 8:06 PM EST
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